TradingWithHak
Retirement, through the investing lens
Pre-filled with your actual military pension and VA compensation from the budget worksheet. Adjust the current age, starting balance, monthly contribution, and Social Security estimate below to match your real numbers.
Which of these apply to you?
What if your income changed?
What if the market pulled back?
Using accurate terminology — pullbacks and corrections are normal, not catastrophic. Click any to apply a year-1 return override.
At retirement (age 65)
$0
At age 92
$0
Monthly income at 65
$0
Lifetime growth
$0
on $189,000 contributed
How long does the portfolio last?
✓ Portfolio survives to age 92At retirement
$0
First-year withdrawal
$0
End-of-life (age 92)
$0
Years funded
$0
Bengen 4% — year-1 withdrawal is 4% of starting balance, then escalates by inflation each year. From Bengen (1994); the conventional "will my portfolio last 30 years" benchmark. Fixed % — re-apply the rate to the current balance every year; self-correcting but volatile. Gross dollar amounts shown — taxes on traditional-account withdrawals are modeled separately by your filing status + bracket. Social Security, pensions, and VA disability flow through the income timeline above and aren't double-counted here.
What if returns weren't smooth? — Monte Carlo
58% success across 500 simulated pathsWorst-case ending (5th %ile)
$0
Median ending (50th %ile)
$0
Best-case ending (95th %ile)
$0
The deterministic chart above asks "if I get the average return every year, will my portfolio last?" Monte Carlo asks the harder question: "if I get the average return on average, but actually live through random good and bad years, what range of outcomes should I expect?" The dark band holds the middle 50% of paths; the light band holds 80%; the solid line is the median; the dashed line is the deterministic projection. A bear market in your first retirement year hurts more than the same one ten years in — that's sequence-of-returns risk, and it's what the spread of the fan is showing you.
What's left after federal tax? — first-year net
TY 2026 brackets · IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32Gross cash in (year 1)
$0
Withdrawal + SS + other taxable streams
Federal income tax
$0
Effective 3.5% · marginal 10%
Net spending power
$0
After federal tax (state tax not modeled)
Why it matters. Withdrawing $50,000 from a Traditional 401(k) is not the same as withdrawing $50,000 from a Roth. Traditional money is taxed as ordinary income on withdrawal; Roth and HSA-for-medical aren't. Move the slider to see the difference. Social Security is partially taxable above $32k MFJ of provisional income (IRC §86) — the tile above already accounts for that. Not modeled: state income tax (varies widely), the 3.8% NIIT on high earners, IRMAA Medicare surcharges, RMDs. Treat this as a directional estimate; consult a CPA before decisions specific to your situation.